New Delhi. Earlier people thought that Vijay Kedia could do wonders only in small cap stocks, but 2024 proved that his vision can hit anywhere in the market. This time his smartest bet was not on some hidden stock but on a silver ETF. The result was that in less than a year his money increased by 100 percent. The price of silver in the market crossed Rs 1.9 lakh per kg and in the international market silver reached $ 60 per ounce.
The interesting thing is that this entire rally took place at a time when the world economy was full of tariff war, fear of recession and uncertainty. But Silver left all these obstacles behind. Kedia himself believes that gold is good, but silver is performing better than it. Vijay Kedia said in an interview to ET, “I had bought silver ETF last year and its value has now doubled.” This is not just an investment story but the story of a wave in the commodity market that wiped out many of the world’s major asset classes.
Silver prices at record high, huge inflow of money into ETFs
The reason behind the rally of silver seen in 2024 and 2025 was not only the interest of investors but also the big problem of supply. Demand for silver increased rapidly across the world but mining output did not increase accordingly. Solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics industries took the demand for silver to a whole new level. The impact of this gap was directly visible on the prices and there was huge inflow in ETFs.
The Gold to Silver ratio fell from 107 to 72 which indicates that institutional investors placed heavy bets on silver. March futures on MCX are set to touch the level of Rs 2 lakh. This is the first time that such a shortage is seen regarding the availability of silver and ETF investors got the maximum benefit from it.
Silver market in deficit for the fifth consecutive year
According to The Silver Institute, the worldwide supply of silver has been in deficit for the last five years. This means that the amount of silver required is not coming out. Due to this, physical scarcity has increased in the market. The availability of silver in London and spot markets decreased and prices went up rapidly.
Jigar Trivedi of Reliance Securities says that mine production has lagged behind the demand and that is why huge money inflows into silver ETFs increased the rally manifold. At present there is no indication that this deficit is going to end soon.
Kedia’s portfolio is changing
Vijay Kedia generally follows SMILE framework Small in size, Medium in Experience, Large in aspiration and Extra-large in market potential. With this in mind, he caught multibaggers like Atul Auto, Cera Sanitaryware and Tejas Networks in the past. But now they are keeping 10 to 12 percent of their portfolio in precious metals which includes sovereign gold bonds and silver ETFs.
Although he clearly says that this investment is not very big. The reason is that gold and silver sometimes give poor returns even for five to ten years. Despite this, they believe that the value of silver is still low and there are chances of it doubling in the next three to four years.
Will silver continue to shine?
Kotak Securities has estimated that by 2026, silver may go up to $ 70 to $ 75 an ounce. Industrial demand is strong, silver has a big role in green technology and investment in ETFs is continuously increasing. But the real question is whether this rally will last. This will largely depend on how long the supply gap persists.
At present, it is certain that the way silver has made investors happy in 2024 and 2025, it has once again proved that not everything that glitters in the market is gold. Sometimes even silver shows its strength. And this time Vijay Kedia’s vision proved absolutely right.
