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UK economy unexpectedly contracted in October

UK economy unexpectedly contracted in October
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The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in October, according to the latest official figures.

The economy contracted by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, while economists expected it to grow by 0.1%.

During the three months to the end of October, the economy also contracted by 0.1%, as manufacturing output fell and growth in services stagnated, the ONS said.

“Within production, there was continued weakness in car manufacturing, with the industry only recovering slightly in October from the substantial drop in output seen the previous month,” ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said.

The government has made economic growth one of its key priorities.

A Treasury spokesman said the government was working to boost economic growth by reducing energy bills and major investments in infrastructure.

“We are determined to defy growth forecasts and create good jobs, so that everyone is better off, while helping each other invest in better public services,” the spokesperson said.

Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride blamed the Budget for the unexpected economic contraction.

“For months, Rachel Reeves has misled the British public. She said she wouldn’t raise taxes on workers; she broke that promise again. She insisted there was a black hole in the public finances, but there wasn’t.”

During the three months to October, production contracted 0.5%, driven largely by a 17.7% drop in vehicle manufacturing.

The cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover halted production at its plants across the UK for the entire month of September, with a gradual return to manufacturing activity from early October.

The resumption of vehicle manufacturing helped boost production across the UK during that month, which grew by 1.1%.

However, the ONS noted that the rebound in vehicle manufacturing had been small, as it was still well below levels seen in August.

The service sector, which includes areas such as professional services and retail trade, it did not grow at all in the three months to October.

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the surprise contraction in the economy strengthened the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates at its meeting next week.

“It’s surprising that the economy has only grown in one of the last seven months,” he said.

Jack Meaning, chief economist at Barclays bank in the UK and former adviser to the Bank of England, told the BBC’s Today program that the figures showed the economy was “unequivocally weak”.

“This continues the story that we’ve seen more or less throughout this year of slowing growth from relatively strong numbers at the beginning to much weaker numbers now, and actually an outright contraction,” he said.

“Ultimately, part of the story today is that we didn’t see as much of a recovery from the Jaguar Land Rover closure as we had hoped. We thought things would recover pretty quickly; it looks like it might take a little bit longer.”

Meaning added that Barclays data indicated uncertainty ahead of the Budget was weighing on the economy as people “paused purchases and big spending decisions”.

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