Shabana Mahmood has vowed to “do whatever it takes” to secure the UK’s borders. Now it’s becoming clearer what that looks like.
The Home Secretary is expected to tell Parliament on Monday that successful asylum seekers will only be allowed to stay in the UK temporarily.
When their country of origin is deemed safe, they will be returned. Its status will be reviewed periodically during the interim.
When he outlines the government’s new policy, aimed at deterring people from illegally crossing the Channel to seek a new life in the UK, his statement is likely to be a warning that the era of permanent protection is over.
The move comes as the Home Office announces that almost 50,000 illegal immigrants have been expelled or deported from British soil since Labor came to power.
New figures released show a 23% increase in total removals or deportations compared to the previous 16-month period before July 2024 under the Conservative government.
Government experts describe Mahmood’s latest decision as a “significant change.”
It is a policy borrowed from Denmark, where a government led by the center-left Social Democrats has presided over one of the strictest asylum and immigration systems in Europe.
A previous presumption in the system of extending permits was discarded. Refugees are given temporary residence permits, usually for two years, and actually have to reapply for asylum when they expire.
Even for those who are allowed to extend multiple times, the path to citizenship has become longer and more difficult.
His admirers, including Mahmood, point out that as policies tightened, the Social Democratic Party’s popularity ratings rose, and those of a right-wing populist movement, the People’s Party, fell.
She believes that unless the Labor Party makes similar decisions here, then “darker forces” could flourish.
Last week I revealed that the Home Secretary had sent senior officials to Denmark to see what lessons could be learned from its system.
And it wasn’t just the temporary status of the refugees that caught the attention of its officials.
They also examined Denmark’s increased restrictions on “family reunification,” when refugees want to bring their spouses, partners or children to the country.
She believes Denmark’s policies serve as a disincentive for people to seek asylum in the first place and is shocked that successful applications are at their lowest level in 40 years.
And she believes what she sees as the current generosity of the UK system is acting as a magnet and boosting small boat sailings.
But it is still controversial.
Four years ago, the Danish government planned to return about 200 refugees to Syria even as the civil war raged, because it said parts of Damascus were safe.
He will no doubt face opposition from some in Labor ranks.
When it was revealed that Denmark was being used as a model for stricter rules in the UK, Labor MP Clive Lewis told the BBC that progressive voters could migrate to more left-wing parties such as the Greens as a result.
And that some aspects of the Danish system reflect the “talking points of the far right.”
Nottingham MP Nadia Whittome, also on the left of the Labor Party, said following Denmark’s path would be a “dead end, morally, politically and electorally”.
But I understand that Shabana Mahmood will issue a warning to her skeptical colleagues.
It will suggest that while some of its reforms may seem immoderate, the alternative could be a further increase in support for Reform UK.
She is expected to say, “If you don’t like this, you won’t like what comes next from me.”
The Home Secretary believes Denmark is an example to emulate because its asylum policy – summarized as “less in, more out” – has been achieved while remaining within the European Convention on Human Rights.
But both she and her counterpart in Denmark, Rasmus Stokland, want to see reforms and stop “activist judges” who could place too much emphasis on the ECtHR’s provisions on the right to a family life when deciding deportation cases.
He is expected to address this issue in his statement to Parliament on Monday.
Both Reform UK and the Conservatives argue that it would be more effective to abandon the Convention altogether.
And rather than giving refugees temporary status, Reform UK says they would detain and deport those who arrive across the channel.
Conservatives maintain that the ships cannot be stopped unless a Rwanda-style plan is reinstated.
They see this as a deterrent, while the Labor government denounces it as a trick.
The Home Secretary is likely to acknowledge on Monday that the crisis at the UK’s borders is “out of control”.
Simply adopting new policies is unlikely to restore the confidence of voters tempted by Nigel Farage.
But if the Home Secretary’s stance really drives down the numbers, she will hope her party is given permission to be heard, not just on migration but on other policies as well.
