Interest Rates Expected to Hold As Budget Approaches

Kevin PeacheyCost of living correspondent

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Bank of England officials are expected to keep interest rates at 4% after their final meeting before the Chancellor’s Budget.

Some Bank watchers have suggested that the latest inflation data could strengthen the case for a cut, but most commentators believe such a move is more likely in December.

In September, Bank Governor Andrew Bailey said he still expected further rate cuts but that the pace would be “more uncertain”.

The Bank’s base rate has an impact on the cost of borrowing for individuals and businesses, and also the return on savings.

Uncertainty about the pace of cuts

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will make its latest announcement at 12:00 GMT and most analysts predict a hold.

The Bank of England has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points every three months since August last year. However, it is widely expected that this cycle will be broken.

MPC members will closely consider the latest economic data on price rises as well as employment and wages as they vote on interest rates.

The inflation rate in September was 3.8%, well above the Bank’s target of 2%, but lower than expected. Within that data, food and beverage prices rose at their slowest pace in more than a year.

That has eased some of the pressure on household finances and also led some analysts, including banking giants Barclays and Goldman Sachs, to predict an interest rate cut this month to 3.75%.

They expect a split vote among the nine-member committee. For the first time, each individual’s views on the MPC will be published alongside the wider decision.

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said the market gave a one in three chance of a rate cut to 3.75%.

“The odds are still firmly in favor of a suspension,” he said.

All eyes on the budget

MPC members will be fully aware of the possible implications of the budget which will be delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on 26 November.

The case for an interest rate cut in December could be strengthened if the Budget includes substantial tax increases that do not increase inflation.

The chancellor, in a speech on Tuesday, said Budget measures “will focus on getting inflation down and creating the conditions for interest rate cuts”.

However, details remain scarce until the budget is delivered and more economic data is released ahead of the Bank’s next meeting in December that could influence MPC members’ thinking.

“It’s possible that Rachel Reeves’ surprise press conference on Tuesday was in part a cry for help to the Bank of England,” said AJ Bell’s Hewson.

“By promising to reduce inflation, he could have been signaling that the Bank did not have to wait until after the Budget to cut rates. Whether they do so or not is a very balanced decision.”

Bank interest rates greatly influence borrowing costs for homeowners, either directly for those with tracking rates or more indirectly for those with fixed rates.

In recent days and weeks, many lenders have been cutting interest rates on their new fixed deals as they compete for custom and in anticipation of future central bank rate cuts.

However, savers would likely see a drop in the returns they receive if the Bank cuts the benchmark rate on Thursday or in December.

Rachel Springall, of financial information service Moneyfacts, said many savers were feeling “demoralized” as a result of falling yields and still relatively high inflation, reducing the purchasing power of their savings.

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If not, enter the total you are looking to borrow.u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en n u003cdiv class=”input__container “u003en u003cinput id=”form_input_1″n name=”form_input_1″ n type=”number”n value=”165000″n min=”0″ n max=”10000000″n data-default=”165000″n step=”any”n required=”required”n u003en n u003cdiv class=”input__btn-container”u003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-increment” data-direction=”increment” data-key=”form_input_1″ aria-label=”increase £”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-decrement” data-direction=”decrement” data-key=”form_input_1″ aria-label=”decrease £”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003c/divu003en u003cspan class=”input__number-format” aria-hidden=”true”u003e£u003c/spanu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”label__container”u003en u003clabel class=”label__input ” for=”form_input_2″u003eHow long will you take to pay it back?u003c/labelu003en u003cbutton class=”label__info-btn” data-id=”info-button-2″ aria-label=”More info on repayment periods”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cdiv class=”info-box info-button-2″u003en u003cdiv class=”info-box__text info-button-2″u003eIf you have an existing mortgage enter the total number of years remaining. If not, enter the total number of years you are looking to borrow over.u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en n u003cdiv class=”input__container “u003en u003cinput id=”form_input_2″n name=”form_input_2″ n type=”number”n value=”20″n min=”1″ n max=”50″n data-default=”20″n step=”any”n required=”required”n u003en n u003cdiv class=”input__btn-container”u003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-increment” data-direction=”increment” data-key=”form_input_2″ aria-label=”increase years”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-decrement” data-direction=”decrement” data-key=”form_input_2″ aria-label=”decrease years”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003c/divu003en u003cspan class=”input__number-format” aria-hidden=”true”u003eyearsu003c/spanu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”radio__container”u003en u003cfieldsetu003en u003cdiv class=”label__container”u003en u003clegend class=”label__input”u003eWhat is your current…u003c/legendu003en u003cbutton class=”label__info-btn” data-id=”info-button-3″ aria-label=”More info on interest rates”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cdiv class=”info-box info-button-3″u003en u003cdiv class=”info-box__text”u003eFor those with a mortgage enter the rate for your current fixed term. 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content”,”app-image”:”https://news.files.bbci.co.uk/include/vjassets/img/app-launcher.png”}},{“type”:”syndication”,”path”:”/include/newsspec/34996-mortgage-calculator/2025/english/app/syndication”,”parameters”:{}},{“type”:”facebook”,”path”:”/include/newsspec/34996-mortgage-calculator/2025/english/app/facebook”,”parameters”:{“height”:960,”withMargins”:”yes”}},{“type”:”applenews”,”path”:”/include/newsspec/34996-mortgage-calculator/2025/english/app/applenews”,”parameters”:{}}]}}]}},{“type”:”text”,”model”:{“suitableForAbridgement”:false,”blocks”:[{“type”:”paragraph”,”model”:{“text”:”The Bank’s interest rates heavily influence borrowing costs for homeowners – either directly for those on tracker rates, or more indirectly for fixed rates.”,”blocks”:[{“type”:”fragment”,”model”:{“text”:”The Bank’s interest rates heavily influence borrowing costs for homeowners – either directly for those on tracker rates, or more indirectly for fixed rates.”,”attributes”:[]}}]}},{“type”:”paragraph”,”model”:{“text”:”In recent days and weeks, many lenders have been cutting the interest rates on their new, fixed deals as they compete for custom, and in anticipation of future central bank rate cuts.”,”blocks”:[{“type”:”fragment”,”model”:{“text”:”In recent days and weeks, many lenders have been cutting the interest rates on their new, fixed deals as they compete for custom, and in anticipation of future central bank rate cuts.”,”attributes”:[]}}]}},{“type”:”paragraph”,”model”:{“text”:”Savers, however, would likely see a fall in the returns they receive if the Bank cuts the benchmark rate on Thursday or in December.”,”blocks”:[{“type”:”fragment”,”model”:{“text”:”Savers, however, would likely see a fall in the returns they receive if the Bank cuts the benchmark rate on Thursday or in December.”,”attributes”:[]}}]}},{“type”:”paragraph”,”model”:{“text”:”Rachel Springall, from financial information service Moneyfacts, said many savers were 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