Flood misery for Gazans awaiting next stage of peace plan

More than 800,000 Gazans are at risk of flooding, the UN says, as a powerful winter storm hits the Strip.

Heavy rains have already flooded the camps and caused several buildings to collapse.

A constant stream of water drips from the openings of the tent Ghadir al-Adham shares with her husband and six children in Gaza City. His family is still displaced after the war and waiting for reconstruction to begin.

“Here we are, living a life of humiliation,” he told the BBC. “We want caravans. We want our houses rebuilt. We long for concrete to keep us warm. Every day I sit and cry for my children.”

Two months after a ceasefire imposed by the United States, Gaza is trapped in the first phase of Donald Trump’s peace plan: its territory divided between the warring parties, its population still displaced and surrounded by rubble.

Plans for new housing – and a new government – remain frozen in the next stage of Donald Trump’s peace deal, as the search continues for Israel’s last remaining hostage, Ran Gvili.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Hamas must return all of Israel’s hostages – dead and alive – before the two sides move on to the next, more difficult stage of the peace deal.

But so far several searches through the rubble of Gaza have turned up no sign of him. Gvili was captured during the Hamas attacks of October 7: a police officer, recovering from a broken shoulder, who went to defend the nearby Alumim kibbutz.

His parents, Talik and Itzik, were told last year that he had not survived.

The road to his home in Meitar, in southern Israel, is lined with banners paying tribute to him, and yellow flags flying beside him in memory of Israel’s hostages.

“They stole our son, they stole him,” his mother Talik told me.

“They know where it is,” Itzik said. “They just try to hide it or hold it back. They are games[ing] with us.”

They believe Hamas wants to keep their son as an insurance policy against future negotiations, after returning all the other hostages, both dead and alive.

In response, a Hamas official told the BBC that their accusations were false and that Israel was trying to prevent the implementation of the agreement.

But with no sign of Gvili’s body, and pressure from Washington mounting, his parents say they are counting on Israel’s leaders to not move forward until their son is found.

“Everyone in Israel[‘s] The government tells us: ‘No, we will not go to the second level until Ran returns.’ This is his promise,” Talik said.

Many in Israel believe it would be politically difficult for Netanyahu to carry out the next steps of the deal, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces toward the Gaza perimeter, if a hostage is still missing in Gaza.

Both Israel and Hamas face difficult concessions in the next stage of the agreement. For Hamas, it means handing over weapons and power. For Israel, hand over security to an international stabilization force.

And this is also why leaders on both sides may be hesitating, says retired General Israel Ziv, former head of Israel’s Directorate of Military Operations.

“Israel and Hamas share the same interest in not moving so quickly to the second stage,” he told me. “Hamas does not want to lose control and the Israeli side, for political reasons, also prefers to stay in Gaza, since no one wants to explain to their base that they have to withdraw.”

He says Trump is the only one who can force both sides to move forward and that time is running out.

“If we wait, I think we might miss the opportunity because Hamas is reorganizing and [its] Strength is coming back,” he explained. “We have to take a deep breath and move forward with that plan, because staying in the situation as it is is the worst case scenario.”

Disarming Hamas – in a way that both sides agree to – is seen as the first major hurdle. Without that, no foreign country is likely to commit troops to secure the Strip, and no reconstruction is likely to begin in Hamas-controlled areas.

Earlier this week, Netanyahu suggested he was skeptical that foreign nations could complete the task instead of Israel.

“Our friends in the United States want to try to establish an international force that will do the job,” he said. “We know there are certain tasks that this force can do. I don’t want to go into details, they can’t do everything and maybe they can’t do the main thing, but we’ll see.”

Gaza is currently divided in two by the so-called yellow line, which marks the limits of Israeli forces in the first stage of the ceasefire agreement.

Israel’s military chief of staff recently referred to it as a “new border line,” prompting accusations that Israel was signaling its intention to remain there long-term.

Key issues, including how to disarm Hamas, are expected to be discussed at a meeting between Israel’s prime minister and Donald Trump in Florida later this month.

The president of the United States – who has already negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza and pushed his peace plan through the UN Security Council – has openly expressed his desire to move the process forward.

He told reporters this week that he would announce membership of a newly created Gaza Peace Board early next year. “It will be one of the most legendary boards in history… Everyone wants to be on it,” he said.

There are also widespread reports that, under pressure from Washington, Israel is beginning work to clear debris in preparation for a new temporary housing project in the Israeli-controlled Rafah area in the southern Strip.

The new homes could reportedly provide shelter to tens of thousands of Gazans, on the condition that they are willing to cross into Israeli-controlled areas and undergo checks for any links to Hamas.

Some see it as part of a plan to lure Gazans into Israeli-controlled areas, in order to isolate Hamas. A small number of people have already crossed into these areas, to camps established there by armed groups supported by Israel.

But many Gazans – even those who want to replace Hamas – say they refuse to live under Israeli control.

It is a glimpse into an alternative future for Gaza, if this second stage of Trump’s plan fails; a future in which Gaza, already divided, becomes even more divided.