Covid investigation: UK did ‘too little, too late’, leading to thousands more deaths

The UK’s response to Covid was “too little, too late” and led to thousands more deaths in the first wave, according to an inquiry into government decision-making.

The report also says that the lockdown could have been avoided if voluntary measures, such as social distancing and isolating people with symptoms along with household members, had been adopted before March 16, 2020.

By the time ministers acted it was too late and lockdown was inevitable, the report said, then a week-long delay in its introduction led to 23,000 more deaths in England in the first wave than would otherwise have been seen.

The report criticizes the governments of the four nations and describes a “chaotic culture” in Downing Street.

The inquiry’s chair, Baroness Hallett, said that while the government was presented with unenviable options under extreme pressure, “all four governments failed to appreciate the scale of the threat or the urgency of the response it demanded in early 2020”.

Ministers were partly relying on “misleading assurances” that the UK was prepared, he claimed.

Government scientists underestimated how quickly the virus was spreading and in the early days were advising that restrictions not be introduced until the spread of the virus was closer to its peak to help build herd immunity, Lady Hallett added.

In almost 800 pages, the report, which is the second of the 10 planned by the investigation, also exposes other failures:

• He called it “unforgivable” that the same mistakes of spring 2020 were repeated in the autumn as the second wave began to grow and Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeatedly changed his mind on the need for tighter restrictions, meaning England’s second lockdown was not introduced until November, when it spiraled out of control.
• Breaking the rules by politicians and their advisers – Dominic Cummings’ trip to Durham and Barnard Castle in March 2020 was on the list – undermined public confidence in decision-making and significantly increased the risk of people failing to comply.
• The report described a “toxic and chaotic” culture at the heart of the government during its response to the pandemic, which it said affected the quality of advice and decision-making.
• The four nations were criticized for their planning and decision-making, which the report said was hampered by a lack of trust between Boris Johnson and the prime ministers.
• The Eat Out to Help Out scheme, suggested by chancellor Rishi Sunak and agreed by Johnson to support hospitality venues in August 2020, was “devised in the absence of any scientific advice” and “undermined public health messages”.
• The impact on vulnerable groups (older people, disabled people and some ethnic minorities) was not adequately taken into account when deciding how to respond to the virus, even though the damage they would suffer was foreseeable.
• Children were not given enough priority and ministers did not adequately consider the consequences of school closures.

The report states that lockdowns, while helping to save lives, left lasting scars on society, halted normal childhoods, delayed treatment for non-Covid-related health conditions and worsened inequalities.

He said modeling showing that 23,000 deaths could have been avoided if it had been closed a week before March 23, 2020 would have equated to 48% fewer deaths in the first wave up to July 1, 2020.

But the report does not suggest that the total death toll from the pandemic – 227,000 in the UK when it was declared over in 2023 – would have reduced.

It’s very difficult to say, as it depends on a variety of other factors that could have reduced or increased the number of deaths as the pandemic progressed.

However, the inquiry praised the government for the “remarkable” rollout of the vaccination program and how it emerged from the lockdown of early 2021, allowing time for vulnerable groups to receive the vaccine. The report described this as a turning point for the UK.

The report made a variety of different recommendations, including:

• It is best to consider the impact that decisions could have on those most at risk, both from the disease and the measures taken to respond to it.
• Expand participation in the Sage advisory group of scientists, including representatives from devolved governments, as well as creating other expert groups to advise on the economic and social implications.
• Reform and clarify decision-making structures during emergencies within each nation
• Improve communication between the four nations during an emergency

Deborah Doyle, of Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, said it was “devastating to think about the lives that could have been saved” under different leadership.

“We now know that many of our family members would still be alive today if it were not for the leadership of Boris Johnson and his colleagues.

“Throughout the pandemic, Boris Johnson put his political reputation before public safety. He pleased his critics when the UK needed decisive action.”

Johnson has yet to respond to the findings.

But Cummings, who was Boris Johnson’s senior adviser at the start of the pandemic, accused the investigation of a mix of “cover-ups and rewriting history”.

In a social media post, he said he was offered the opportunity to respond to the investigation’s findings before the report was published, but he turned it down, calling it “internal corruption.”

He said experts “advised us to do almost nothing” and “warned against any serious restrictions” as the country was set to reach “natural herd immunity” in September.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the government would “carefully consider” the findings and recommendations.

He said improvements had been made to how the government would react to a major crisis, but added: “It is clear that local government and our public services, including the NHS, are under immense pressure and in many cases have not fully recovered from the pandemic.

“The cost of the pandemic continues to weigh heavily on public coffers.

“That is why this Government is committed to driving growth in the economy and reforming public services, so that when we face the next crisis, we do so from a position of national resilience.”

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has called on Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch to apologize on behalf of his party as he said the news that the lockdown could have been avoided is “devastating”.

“This tragedy must never be repeated,” he added.