It is difficult to say whether the opposition in Bihar will be able to remain in the same condition it is in. One should wait till the expansion of the Council of Ministers. The political tricks of BJP and Nitish Kumar are still pending. Anyway, it has been a tradition in Bihar to continue manipulations even after the elections. After the elections, sometimes a BSP MLA moves to another party, while the MLA from Chirag Paswan’s own party slips into the opposition camp. The disunity of VIP, AIMIM and Congress in 2020 is well known. If for some reason there is a decrease of even 1-2 among RJD MLAs, then Tejashwi Yadav may lose the status of Leader of Opposition. However, right now they have enough MLAs and they are fully qualified for this post.
How many MLAs are required for Leader of Opposition?
According to constitutional provisions, it is necessary for the Leader of Opposition in Bihar Assembly to have 10 percent of the total seats i.e. 24-25 MLAs. This time 25 RJD MLAs have been elected to the Legislative Assembly. Therefore, apparently there does not seem to be any hindrance in Tejashwi Yadav becoming the Leader of Opposition. RJD MLAs have also elected him as the leader of the legislative party. Therefore there is no problem in the party also. In the previous two elections, so many RJD MLAs had been elected that there was no problem in claiming the post of Leader of Opposition.
Ease for RJD in 2015 and 2020
RJD did not face serious problems like this time twice in a row. Because RJD had sufficient number of MLAs at that time. In 2015, 80 RJD MLAs had won. Then the Grand Alliance government was also formed, but due to Nitish Kumar’s separation, RJD had to sit in the opposition. Even in 2020, 75 RJD MLAs were elected, due to which no one had any doubt about being the Leader of Opposition. RJD has only 25 MLAs in 2025. If anyone among them cheats, the game can get spoiled. Tejasvi leaders will not be able to achieve opposition status.
How much power is there in Chirag Paswan’s words?
NDA constituent LJP (R) leader and Union Minister Chirag Paswan has claimed that many MLAs of the Grand Alliance are influenced by Narendra Modi. He wants to join NDA. Meanwhile, a discussion is also going on that along with Congress, some RJD MLAs are also wavering in their minds. No one is telling who are such MLAs, but everyone is expressing doubt about the danger of disintegration. If this happens, Tejashwi Yadav will suffer the most because then he will not have the numbers on the basis of which he can claim the position of leader of the opposition.
Congress is also in danger, signs are beginning to appear
Apart from RJD, the second biggest party of the grand alliance, Congress, is also under threat. This time, 4 of the winning MLAs of Congress were missing from the Grand Alliance meeting last week. Doubts are being raised about whether he will be able to survive in Congress. It is being said that his deal has been done with JDU. They can change sides anytime. Speculations about Congress cannot be dismissed either. That is why Congress has faced such a breakdown in 2018. Then 4 MLCs of Congress had joined JDU. Among them, Ashok Chaudhary had also been the state president of Congress.
It is easy to break the MLAs of small parties
This time NDA has won 202 seats. Of the remaining 41 seats, RJD has won 25, Congress has won 6, AIMIM has won 5, besides IP and BSP have won 1 seat each. BSP has an old record that its MLAs go to the ruling camp after winning. AIMI also has a broken record. Last time, 4 out of 5 MLAs had gone with RJD. Only one MLA from the Indian Inclusive Party has reached the House of Assembly for the first time. Some RJD MLAs also changed sides during the floor test in 2024. Prominent among them were Anand Mohan’s son Chetan Anand and Bahubali Anant Singh’s wife Neelam Devi. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the game of party switching among MLAs starts again. However, this much is certain that the people who will change sides this time will be the constituents of the NDA.
There will be impact in Legislative Council and Rajya Sabha
The effect of less seats in Bihar Assembly elections will also be reflected in Bihar Legislative Council and Rajya Sabha. It is necessary to have 35 MLAs for Rajya Sabha, which is fulfilled by the combined number of Grand Alliance, but for this it will be necessary for all the MLAs to remain in their party. If this number decreases then not even a single member of the opposition (grand alliance) will be able to go to Rajya Sabha. Similarly, it is natural to see the effect of small numbers in the Legislative Council elections. Such a situation may arise in the Legislative Council that Rabri Devi, the leader of the opposition, may also lose her seat. The status with which he was allotted 10 Circular Road bungalow may also be lost. That’s why the future does not look easy for Tejashwi Yadav. Court cases are a separate headache.
