What we know about the leaked draft US plan to end the Russian war in Ukraine

The draft US-Russia peace plan has been widely leaked and we now know that it proposes handing over those areas of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas industrial region that are still under Ukrainian control to the de facto control of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

The latest versions of the text also call for Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces to 600,000 people.

But what else is known about the text and who will benefit most from it?

There are 28 key points and, at first glance, there are several that could be acceptable to Ukraine. Others seem vague and imprecise.

Ukraine’s sovereignty would be “confirmed” and there would be a “Total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe”with robust or reliable “security guarantees” for Kyiv and the demand for early elections in 100 days.

If Russia invaded Ukraine “robust and coordinated military response” It is proposed together with the reinstatement of sanctions and the cancellation of the agreement.

Although elections are impossible in Ukraine because of martial law, in theory they could be held if a peace agreement is signed.

But as for security guarantees, there are no details on who would provide them or how strong they might be. This falls far short of the NATO-style Article Five commitment to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on everyone. Kyiv would want more than a vague promise if it signed up.

Among the most controversial proposals is that Ukraine hand over its own unoccupied territory and reduce the size of its armed forces.

“Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.”

Giving up territory where at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians live – the “fortress belt” cities of Donetsk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka – will not be acceptable to most Ukrainians. Russia has spent more than a year trying to capture the city of Pokrovsk; Ukraine is unlikely to hand over such important strategic centers without a fight.

“The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 troops.”

Ukraine’s army was estimated last January at 880,000 active troops, down from 250,000 at the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

While 600,000 might seem like a potentially acceptable number in peacetime, that kind of limitation would infringe on Ukraine’s sovereignty. It could also be too large a figure for Russia to accept.

“Our red lines are clear and unwavering,” Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the UN Security Council: “There will never be any formal or non-formal recognition of the Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian. Ukraine will not accept any limits on its self-defense rights or on the size or capabilities of our armed forces.”

The project also proposes that ““Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.”.

In other words, Ukraine and other countries would not need to recognize Russian control by law. That could allow kyiv to accept that wording, since it would not affect Ukraine’s constitution that says its borders are “indivisible and inviolable.”

Elsewhere, in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia, the front lines would be frozen and Russia would give up areas it has occupied elsewhere.

The draft proposes important commitments on Ukraine’s strategic future:

“Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.”

“Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will gain short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is evaluated.”

There is little chance of Ukraine joining NATO any time soon and Russia in recent months has softened its stance on Ukraine’s bid for EU membership. The document appears to offer kyiv access to EU markets while ignoring the opinions of 27 European countries.

Joining both the EU and NATO is part of Ukraine’s constitution and another of Khrystyna Hayovyshyn’s red lines at the UN on Thursday was: “We will also not tolerate any infringement of our sovereignty, including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join.”

Other draft proposals are for NATO to agree not to station troops in Ukraine and for European fighter jets to be stationed in Poland. Kyiv would also have to commit to being a “Non-nuclear state.”

This appears to reject plans by the Western Coalition of the Willing, led by the UK and France, to help rein in any future deal.

Several points refer to Russia’s exit from isolation with “Russia must reintegrate into the global economy” and invited again to the group of G8 powers.

That seems a long way off for now, since Putin has an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Russia was expelled from the G7 after it seized and then annexed Crimea in 2014 and Trump tried to bring Putin back into the fold six years later.

If the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan were reluctant before the full-scale invasion, there is even less chance of that happening now.

The draft proposes investing $100 billion of frozen Russian assets “in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine”with the United States receiving 50% of the profits and Europe adding $100 billion in investments for reconstruction.

This is reminiscent of the US minerals deal with Ukraine earlier this year, which saw a US price for its participation, and also leaves the European Union with nothing but hefty bills.

The sums he mentions cannot be sufficient either: at the beginning of this year, the total cost of reconstruction in Ukraine was estimated at 524 billion dollars (506 billion euros).

Some €200 billion in frozen assets in Russia are largely held by Euroclear in Belgium, and the European Union is currently working on a plan to use the money to finance kyiv financially and militarily.

The rest of those frozen assets would go to a “Russian-American investment vehicle”according to the draft, so Russia would see some of its money back, but again there would be a financial benefit for the United States.

Several commentators have noted that the plan does not require weapons limitations for Ukraine’s military or its arms industry, even though there is a provision that says: If Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg, then the security guarantee will be considered null and void.

But it does not impose a restriction on the long-range weapons Ukraine has been developing, such as its Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles.

We know the United States is eager to move quickly under an “aggressive timeline” with this draft, with reports suggesting Ukraine has until Thanksgiving at the end of next week to agree to it.

Similarly, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was involved in drafting it, described it as “a list of possible ideas to end this war”, and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has made clear that he does not see the 28 points as a definitive plan, having spoken with the other key US official involved, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff.

In some respects, the draft document appears to be a work in progress, and some details that were leaked to US websites on Thursday are no longer evident.

The European Union said Friday morning that it had not yet officially seen the plan, and the Russian Foreign Ministry said the same.

Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is known to have spent up to three days with Witkoff discussing this plan, raising suggestions of an arranged deal to suit Moscow. Russia’s response so far has been cautious, but Putin has said it could be the “basis” for a peace deal.

Handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia, even in a demilitarized zone, is the biggest sign of a tilt toward the Russian narrative, but freezing the front lines in the south could prove difficult for the Kremlin, which has annexed both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia into its constitution.

One of the proposals is that the lifting of sanctions be “agreed in stages and on a case-by-case basis” – something Moscow will probably consider too slow.

However, a plan for a “total amnesty” because all the parties will do well in Moscow and very badly in kyiv and the European capitals.

Commentators have noted that while there appear to be important concessions to Putin, some of the requirements for NATO may be too vague for the Kremlin’s tastes.

Russia has also consistently demanded that a peace plan should eliminate what it considers “the root causes” of the war. One of those root causes is stopping NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe, something the draft appears to address.

Some of the draft’s other 28 points also nod to Russian claims of discrimination against Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population without explicitly endorsing them.

One point is explicit but impartial: “Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee Ukrainian and Russian media and education rights.”

Another apparent attempt to be impartial comes from a proposal to distribute electricity generated by the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest – “equally between Russia and Ukraine”.