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US-China Relation: After 45 years, once again in the last 4 years, there has been rapid ups and downs in US-Taiwan and US-China policies. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea and agreements were reached. Donald Trump will visit China soon, while Xi Jinping will also visit America next year.
US-China Relation and Taiwan: January 1, 1979… This year is very important in the history of US-China relations. This was the same year when the then US President Jimmy Carter established formal relations with China. This was a historic turning point, because America considered Beijing the legitimate representative of China. With this, formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan were ended. Under this strategy, America adopted the policy of balancing the influence of the Soviet Union. This change opened the way for trade, scientific-cultural cooperation and strategic coordination between the two sides, or rather, it marked the beginning of formal relations between the two countries.
After 45 years, once again in the last 4 years, there has been rapid ups and downs in the policies of America-Taiwan and America-China. During Donald Trump’s first presidential term, the US strengthened relations with Taiwan by increasing multi-dimensional military and security support. Arms were sold to Taiwan and high level contacts also increased. This policy was a more decisive and different type of policy than Carter’s policy. It seemed that Trump was supporting Taiwan, but this time the picture looks different.
What does Trump’s 2025 vision say?
In the year 2025, the Trump administration has again given priority to dialogue with China on the issue of Taiwan. The way Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea and agreements were reached, this was the beginning of it. Trade/customs agreements indicate that both economies want to reduce tensions and return to economic gains. After this, there was also a phone conversation between the two leaders on the issue of Taiwan and now it has been decided that Donald Trump will visit China soon, while Xi Jinping will also visit America next year. All this has been decided with the Taiwan issue, so it is clear that at this time Trump is in no mood to take a tough stance on Taiwan. This new approach is characterized by trade dependence, piecemeal agreements and private diplomatic initiatives.
Trump and Jinping talked on the phone.
What Carter left, Trump will complete.
Jimmy Carter’s decision was to include China in the global system. The difference in the current situation is that Carter’s goal was a strategic balance against Russia, whereas Trump’s 2025 initiatives are based more on economic transactions and summit diplomacy. In this sense, to some extent, Trump is working towards Carter’s objective i.e. social and economic inclusion of China, but the situation is different at this time. China’s One China policy was agreed to but its purpose was to balance Russia, but now Russia and China are together.
Former US President Jimmy Carter. (Credit- Reuters)
Will America abandon Taiwan?
The most sensitive question among all this is what will be the future of Taiwan? Even after ending formal diplomatic relations, America has always remained a shield for Taiwan from the 90s till now. Whenever China showed its dominance, America took the responsibility of Taiwan’s security. Then what happened now?
- In 1979, when America ended formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) was created for its protection. In such a situation, no President can just abandon Taiwan unless there is widespread support from Congress.
- Donald Trump’s policy is also not such that he will distance himself from Taiwan. In 2025, Trump tried to find compromises with China and publicly stated that he believed China would not immediately attack Taiwan. Trump wants to improve relations with China through a reconciliation agreement but will not completely exclude Taiwan. Yes, there is definitely a possibility of pressure and bargaining on the lines of Ukraine.
- Both parties of America – Republicans and Democrats, take Taiwan’s security seriously. So neither is it easy to officially leave Taiwan. The basic goal of the Carter-era strategic balance is still relevant today, but Trump sees it more at the trade level. The Trump administration can make a deal with China to reduce regional tensions and gain economic benefits, but complete abandonment of Taiwan is virtually impossible due to legal restrictions from Congress and regional partners.
