The deletion of 58 lakh names from the voter list of West Bengal is no less than a political earthquake. The most surprising thing is that the districts where maximum names have been cut are either impenetrable forts of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) or strongholds of the BJP. There is a huge difference in the figures of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s seat Bhawanipur and Leader of Opposition Shubhendu Adhikari’s Nandigram seat. We are going to tell you about those districts where maximum votes have been lost and will also tell you who has the strength there right now? How is the political equation there?
1. Kolkata (North and South)
TMC’s stronghold, maximum votes have been lost here.
Kolkata Answer: 25% names were deleted (390390 voters) which is the highest percentage in the state.
Kolkata South: 23.82% names were deleted (2,16,150 voters).
- Political equation: Kolkata is the strongest fort of TMC. In the 2021 assembly elections, TMC made a clean sweep of all 11 seats in Kolkata.
- Bhawanipur (Mamata’s stronghold)
It is part of Kolkata South. There were a total of 2,06,295 voters, out of which 44,787 (about 21%) have been removed. It is an urban seat with a mix of Bengali Bhadralok, Marwari and Gujarati communities. In 2021, Mamata Banerjee won from here by more than 58,000 votes.
The deletion of such a large number of names in Kolkata is a matter of concern for TMC. A large number of migrants and tenants live here. If TMC’s core voters (city dwellers or minorities) are more in the deleted names, then it is a blow to Mamata. At the same time, there is a large section of Hindi speaking voters in Kolkata North who have been leaning towards BJP, if their names are deleted then BJP will suffer loss.
2. South 24 Parganas
TMC’s lifeline
Names deleted: 8,18,432 (9.52%).
- Political equation: This district is the backbone of TMC. In the 2021 elections, 30 out of 31 seats in South 24 Parganas were won by TMC. Only one seat (Bhangar) was won by Naushad Siddiqui of ISF. BJP could not even open its account here.
- Ethnic/Religious Equation: There is about 35% Muslim population here, which is the outright vote bank of TMC. Apart from this, the SC/ST population is also decisive in the Sundarban areas.
Who benefits and loses?
It is a big deal to cut off more than 8 lakh names. Names have been cut in areas like Canning, Diamond Harbor (Abhishek Banerjee’s parliamentary seat). If these names belong to the minority community, then TMC will link it to the fear of NRC. This district has been giving a huge lead to TMC, so the cut here will directly affect the margin of the ruling party.
3. North 24 Parganas
Matua and minority factor
Names deleted: 7,92,133 (9.54%)
- Political equation: This is the largest district of Bengal and has 33 assembly seats. In 2021, TMC had given a strong performance here, but BJP maintained its hold in Barrackpur and Bangaon belts.
- Matua Community: There is a large population of Matua community (Dalit refugees) in this district, who decide victory and defeat in Bangaon and surrounding seats. BJP’s bet on CAA is for this vote bank.
Who benefits and who loses?
If there are more people from Matua community among the deleted names, then BJP will make it a big issue. At the same time, if names are deleted from border areas (Basirhat etc.), then it could be a hit to TMC’s minority vote bank. In 2021, BJP had won seats in Matua stronghold here, but TMC had made a clean sweep in urban and mixed population areas.
4. Murshidabad: Minority dominated
The crumbling fort of Congress
Names deleted: 2,78,837 (4.84%).
- Political equation: Murshidabad has more than 66% Muslim population. Once it was an impenetrable fort of Congress and Adhir Ranjan Choudhary, but in 2021 TMC demolished it. TMC had won 20 out of 22 seats in the district, while BJP had won 2. Congress was wiped out.
Who benefits and who loses?
Here the reduction of 4.84% may seem small in percentage, but the number (above 2.5 lakh) is huge. Cutting the name here is very sensitive because the issue of infiltration and citizenship is always hot here. This district is now very important for TMC, and cutting the name here means a breach in their solid vote bank.
5. West Crescent
Hindi speaking and industrial areas
Names deleted: 3,06,146 (13.1%).
- Political equation: This district is Asansol-Durgapur industrial belt. There is a large number of Hindi speaking people here and workers from outside states. The contest here in 2021 was close, but TMC had taken the lead.
- Reason: The 13% deletion (highest after Kolkata) indicates that there were a large number of migrant laborers here who may have left due to job closures or other reasons, or were ‘ghost voters’.
What could be the impact?
This could be worrying for the BJP because Hindi speaking voters are traditionally considered supporters of the BJP. BJP remains in fight here at the assembly level.
6. North Bengal (Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar)
BJP’s ‘Power House’
Darjeeling: 1,22,214 names were deleted (9.45%).
Jalpaiguri: 1,33,107 names were deleted (6.95%).
Cooch Behar: 1,13,370 names were deleted (4.55%).
- Darjeeling: It is very important to cut off 9.45% names here. Gorkha community and tea garden workers dominate here. There are BJP MLAs in Darjeeling, Kurseong and Siliguri. The Gorkha community is very sensitive about its identity. Cutting off names can become an issue of ‘identity’ here.
- Cooch Behar: Here Rajbanshi community (SC) is decisive. This is the area of Nisith Pramanik (Union Minister). In 2021, the Sitalkuchi incident (death in firing) took place here. BJP will be more aggressive if the name is cut here because this is its core vote bank.
political equation
North Bengal is the strongest region of BJP. BJP had won unilaterally here in the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections.
7. Purba Medinipur
Adhikari family stronghold vs TMC
Names deleted: 1,41,936 (3.31%)
- Political equation: This district is the home district of Shubhendu Adhikari. There are total 16 seats here. In 2021, there was a close contest between TMC and BJP.
- Nandigram vs Bhawanipur: The most interesting comparison in the report is here. There were 2,78,212 voters in Nandigram, out of which only 10,599 names have been removed. This is much less than Bhawanipur (Mamata’s seat), where 44,000 names were cut.
Whose gain, whose loss?
The lowest percentage of names (3.31%) were cut in Purba Medinipur. This means that the voter database here was either already clean or there has been less migration here. Politically, it is a matter of relief for Shubhendu Adhikari that there have been no major cuts in his bastion, whereas major surgery has taken place in Mamata’s bastion.
8. Hooghly and Howrah
closely contested districts
Hooghly: 3,18,874 (6.68%).
Howrah: 44,734 (10.8%)
political equation
TMC had registered a big victory in Hooghly in 2021, but BJP also gave a tough fight in a symbolic seat like Singur (although it lost). Locket Chatterjee was the MP from here (now defeated). TMC’s Rachna Banerjee is now an MP from here. Here, deletion of more than 3 lakh names can change the rural and semi-urban equation.
9. Jangalmahal (Purulia, Bankura, West Medinipur)
tribal belt
Purulia: 1,83,416 (7.57%).
Bankura: 1,32,821 (4.38%).
Paschim Medinipur: 2,03,341 (5.06%).
- Political equation: In 2019, BJP had swept Jangalmahal, but in 2021, TMC made a strong comeback here.
Who benefits and who loses?
It is important to cut off 7.57% names in Purulia. Kurmi and tribal (Santhal) population is in abundance here. The Kurmi community has been agitating for some time. If their names are deleted, it will become a big issue in the elections. The margin of victory and defeat in many seats of Jangalmahal was very less (2000-5000 votes) in 2021. In such a situation, loss of 1-2 lakh votes can spoil the game of any party.
