New Delhi. The price of crude oil in the global market is currently around $65 per barrel, but soon its price will be reduced to less than half. You might not have believed it after hearing this, but the world’s most trusted analysis company JP Morgan has predicted this with full evidence. JP Morgan has said that the energy market is going to witness big changes in the coming time. The company has said in its prediction that the price of Brent crude will fall to around $30 by the end of financial year 2027 i.e. by March 2027. It is believed that if the price of crude comes down then petrol and diesel can also become cheaper in the domestic market.
Global investment bank JP Morgan has said that oil consumption will continue to increase for the next three years, but its supply in the global market is going to increase continuously. This supply is going to be much more than the demand, which will also have a direct impact on the prices of crude oil. JP Morgan has said that the supply of oil from non-OPEC countries is going to be more in the coming time, which will meet the increasing demand and will also affect the prices. If this happens, it will be a big relief for countries like India, because 84 percent of the consumption here depends on imports.
How much is demand going to increase?
According to JP Morgan, global oil demand is expected to increase at the rate of 9 lakh barrels per day in the year 2025. If this happens, the total consumption will reach 10.55 crore barrels per day. This growth is expected to continue in the years 2026 and 2027 also, in which there may be a jump of up to 12 lakh barrels. However, supply is estimated to increase even faster than demand. Morgan has said that in the years 2025 and 2026, supply may increase up to three times compared to demand. The supply may decrease slightly in the year 2027, but it is still going to be much higher than the demand.
What is the reason for increase in supply?
JP Morgan has said that till now the maximum responsibility of oil supply to the world was on OPEC countries, but now the supply from non-OPEC countries is continuously increasing. The Global Bank says that half of the global supply by 2027 will be from countries outside OPEC. Offshore projects and shale oil are going to contribute the most in this. Morgan said that earlier the offshore sector was considered expensive and unstable, but with the advent of new technology it has become a low-cost and more reliable sector. The offshore sector is expected to supply 5 lakh barrels per day in 2025, 9 lakh barrels in 2026 and 4 lakh barrels per day in 2027.
Increasing production of shale oil
The production and supply of shale oil is increasing in the global market. The growth of shale oil in America is slow, but remains stable. However, in South America like the Vaca Muerta region of Argentina, production is increasing rapidly due to low costs and better infrastructure. The supply of shale oil in the year 2025 will be around 8 lakh barrels per day and if the price of crude remains around $ 50 per barrel, then there can be further growth of 4 lakh barrels in the year 2026 and 5 lakh barrels in 2027. Shale oil is a type of hydrocarbon that is trapped in sedimentary rocks called oil shale. It is different from traditional crude oil and is extracted by heating rocks.
World’s oil reserves are increasing
With the increase in the supply of oil in the global market, its reserves are also increasing. Global reserves have increased by 1.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, of which 1 million barrels per day are stored on water or stockpiled in China. JP Morgan said that this additional supply can come into the market in the year 2026 and the stock can increase to 28 lakh barrels per day while in the year 2027 it can go up to 27 lakh barrels per day.
How far will the price of crude go?
JP Morgan has estimated that if this growth occurs in supply, it will be much more than demand. This will definitely increase pressure on prices. In the year 2026, the price of Brent crude will go below 60 dollars and by the end of next year it will go below 50 dollars. In the year 2027, its average price will fall to $42 and by the end of the year it will fall to around $30 per barrel. Morgan has said that even if this decline is not completely visible, there is no doubt that it will remain under pressure for the next two years.
