Crude Oil Prices: We often hear or see such news that the price of petrol and diesel may become cheaper in the coming days. But have you ever heard that the price of crude oil will become cheaper than a bottle of water?
It is being told that in the coming time, the price of crude oil in the international market may become less than the price of a bottle of drinking water. This is not an exaggeration, but an estimate made by global brokerage company JP Morgan. According to JP Morgan, the price of Brent crude may fall to $ 30 per barrel by March 2027.
Price of 1 liter less than Rs 18
If this price is converted into Indian Rupee at an exchange rate of around Rs 95 per dollar, then the price of one barrel will be around Rs 2,850. There are 159 liters in a barrel. According to this, the price of one liter of crude oil will be only Rs 17.90, which is less than the price of mineral water bottle which is usually sold between Rs 18 to Rs 20 per liter in Delhi.
This estimate of JP Morgan is very important for countries which are heavily dependent on crude oil imports, such as India, which imports about 86 percent of its crude oil requirement from other countries. JP Morgan estimates that the price of Brent crude could fall by more than 50 percent from the current level, which is currently a little above $62 per barrel. This decline is being expected because supply may increase more than demand at the global level.
Effect of oversupply will be visible
Even though global oil consumption is expected to increase continuously over the next three years, supply growth is expected to be much higher than demand, especially from non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore). If there is more supply, its effect on the price will be clearly visible.
Worldwide oil demand is expected to increase by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025, taking total consumption to 105.5 mbpd. Growth is expected to remain stable in 2026 and may increase to 1.2 mbpd in 2027. However, JP Morgan estimates that supply will grow almost three times faster than demand in 2025 and 2026. By 2027, supply will exceed consumption, which will lead to oversupply and prices will fall.
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