What Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic work again in Uttar Pradesh? Will Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath be able to cross BJP’s path in UP only on the basis of his image? Will the leaders who quit BJP by accusing the Yogi government of not giving rights to the underprivileged be the decisive villains of BJP’s victory campaign in UP? Can the resignation of a few ministers-MLAs of the Yogi government and their close association with SP President Akhilesh Yadav be taken to mean that the dissidents have left BJP only after sensing the wind? Today we will investigate all these questions.
Electoral turmoil continues in five states. The process of defection of disgruntled leaders is going on. After the resignation of some ministers and some MLAs, there is talk of a big setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh, although BJP spokesperson is calling it a common thing. He argues that because the percentage of those who leave is calculated in relation to the number of party MLAs, it sits very low and in such a large clan, even a few pots will knock, not everyone can be satisfied to the same level.
Talking about the BJP, the party has a big brand that can wave the flag of victory again in the form of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Yogi is there, but the big issue is Modi’s existence. He is a Lok Sabha member from UP itself and everyone knows that the central fund has played a major role in the new glow of development for the entire Uttar Pradesh including Purvanchal. It is also true that Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath has a strong image of his own. They are openly talking about the choice between 80 and 20 percent. But those who are calling Yogi the main weapon to repeat the victory, should not forget that the 2017 assembly election was fought on the face of Modi.
In the year 2017, Yogi was a star campaigner in UP, but no one knew that he would be made the chief minister’s chair. The entire election was fought keeping Modi ahead. In 2017 it was not Yogi who did the task of defeating Akhilesh Yadav, who constantly accused the Yogi government of completing all his planned development works.
The second thing is that no matter how much BJP claims that the people of UP are not upset with the Yogi government, that is, there is no anti-incumbency factor this time, this cannot be true. Be it the government of any party, after five years of rule, many people are disappointed with it. The party leadership is assuming that the loss due to anti-incumbency will be compensated by BJP’s brand Modi. The magic of Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath is in its place, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s activism in UP has created such an atmosphere that this time also the BJP supporters will pay attention to his face while pressing the button of the voter machine.
In the political circles regarding Uttar Pradesh, this argument is also being given with different arguments that this time the main contest in UP will be between BJP and Samajwadi Party. Bahujan Samaj Party President Mayawati and other strong party leaders are repeatedly repeating that they are also involved in the race to form the government. However, BSP and Congress are nowhere in the picture that the election surveys conducted on various forums are presenting now.
Most of the surveys are indicating that BJP and allies will form the government again. There are signs of the Samajwadi Party’s continuation, but Akhilesh Yadav will become the Chief Minister again, this fact has not been confirmed in any survey. The possibility of adorning the head of Yogi Aditya Nath again has been expressed as the CM’s crown.
Some people are saying that the BJP’s support base will slip if some MLAs, including Swami Prasad Maurya and Dara Singh, leave the party. They argue that Swami Prasad Maurya’s hold on his vote bank remains the same as it used to be. If this was the case, then the BJP, which is planning the UP elections with the intention of strengthening the road to 2024, would have allowed him to leave the party? Not at all. It is obvious that Maurya would not have decided to leave the party all of a sudden. Inside, the BJP must have had an idea of his leaving the party.
People from inside the BJP and those who are aware of the current developments have been saying for a long time that this time 40 to 50 such ministers, MLAs’ tickets will be cut, who did not pay attention to the work and remained cut off from the public. After two years, the BJP has to go to the general elections and everyone knows that the main road to reach the PM’s chair is UP, so the party will not want to leave any stone unturned in the 2022 assembly elections.
In such a situation, if Swami Prasad and Dara Singh had realized that they would not get a ticket, then their journey to keep getting cream would be stopped for at least five years, then no one should be surprised. This was the reason why he decided to leave BJP. By going to the Samajwadi Party, at least he will get a ticket. If you become an MLA, then even after the election, looking at the equation, you can move from here to there. The implication is that Swami Prasad and Dara Singh did not shy away from the BJP because of the high chances of the Samajwadi Party winning, but because of the fear that their political future might be at stake.
There is no doubt that the political stature of Swami Prasad Maurya was big during Mayawati’s rule. But his political position in BJP was not the same. Akhilesh Yadav has given him a warm welcome, but it remains to be seen how effective Maurya’s intervention in the Samajwadi Party can be. How much Akhilesh, who has marginalized his real uncle, can digest Maurya’s political clout, will be judged by the selection of candidates, the process of which is underway.
Overall, the Modi factor can compensate for the loss caused by the leaders leaving the BJP. Modi ointment can also work positively on the anger of dissidents who have expectations from the Yogi government and see them not being fulfilled. The Bharatiya Janata Party knows this, yet there should be no incidents of some leaders leaving the party, it should take care of it.
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Tags: 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections, PM Modi, UP Election 2022