New Delhi. 2025 has indeed proven to be a historic year for gold. This year, gold has made all-time highs more than 50 times and so far the price has increased by more than 60 percent. Geopolitical tension around the world, softening dollar, falling interest rates and investors’ continuous inclination towards safe haven have been the main reasons behind this surge. The year is not over yet and there are ups and downs in the market, but the eyes have now turned towards 2026. The World Gold Council, in its Gold Outlook 2026 report, explained what factors can drive gold next year and under which scenarios its direction will be bullish or bearish.
According to the report, if America’s growth slows down slightly in 2026 and the Federal Reserve cuts rates faster than expected, then a rise of 5 to 15 percent can be seen in gold. In such a situation, the dollar will weaken and investors will again move towards risk aversion, which will support gold.
If there is a deep global recession, gold will shine again
The second scenario is one in which economies around the world go into a phase of deep recession. If geopolitical tension increases further and investors’ hunger for safe investments increases, then gold can go up by 15 to 30 percent. The report says that this can prove to be the strongest backdrop for gold.
Pressure may come if US economy remains stronger than expected
The third scenario is one in which the American economy performs better than expectations and instead of a cut in interest rates, a slight increase is seen. In such a situation, the dollar will strengthen and money can again go towards risky assets. This will create pressure on gold and the price may come down by 5 to 20 percent.
Two wildcards that can change the picture
Central banks consumption
Emerging economies still have much less gold reserves than developed countries. If geopolitical tension increases further, then these countries can buy gold rapidly, which can provide big support to the prices.
recycling supplies
Recycling remained stable in 2025, but India is emerging as a new factor this time. This year approximately 200 tonnes of gold has been pledged. If economic pressure increases and people start selling mortgaged gold in their homes or people start exchanging old jewellery, then additional supply may come into the market and there may be pressure on prices.
What does the current picture say?
According to Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of India Bullion and Jewelers Association, whose post is Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, at present gold is trading at around Rs 128592. He said that the slight fall that occurred after last week’s rally was just a short break and now buyers have returned to the market. Global signals are strong and investors’ positioning still remains positive for gold.
