Assam Chief Minister Himanta Vishwa Sarma has given a big political statement through a social media post. He has claimed that out of 126 assembly seats in the state, Congress is in a strong position only in about 22 seats. After this statement of Sarma, there has been an increase in the stir in the politics of Assam because this data is creating an atmosphere like an exit poll before the election season.
Why did Himanta make this claim?
1. ‘Muslim dominated seats’ in Assam are the traditional base of Congress
There are about 35–38 seats in Assam where the Muslim population is more than 40%. Half of these seats have historically gone to the Congress. Sarma wants to show Congress as a party of limited scope by calling these seats as 22 potentially safe seats.
2. The ticket auction thing: highlighting the infighting
Controversies have arisen many times regarding ticket distribution in Assam Congress. Sarma claims that candidates are racing among themselves for tickets on these 22 seats, some are trying to get tickets through money and influence politics. That means the CM is raising questions on the discipline and unity of Congress.
3. To make BJP’s strong position look more solid
Sarma wants to send the message that BJP and its allies are again in the mood for a “clean sweep” in the 2026 elections. By limiting Congress, BJP wants to create an atmosphere of “certainty” of its victory.
Is this a statement like ‘exit poll’?
According to political experts, this claim of Himanta is a kind of pre-poll messaging. Although it cannot be called an exit poll, but it definitely gives a message to the public that BJP is already in the lead and Congress is confined to certain areas only. Such statements are often made before elections to demoralize the opposition, to strengthen their political hold and to set the media narrative.
Assam Congress’s reply- ‘Himanta is scared’
CM Sarma is deliberately showing inferiority to Congress. The people of Assam are angry with the BJP—that is why the CM now wants to create an electoral atmosphere by creating religious polarization.
-Debabrata Saikia (Congress leader)Showing the figure of 22 seats is Himanta’s political game. Congress’s position on the ground is much stronger than this.
-Bhupen Bora (former Assam Congress chief)Himanta wants to take advantage by dividing Muslim votes. The public will decide whether Congress or AIUDF is strong on any seat.
-Badruddin Ajmal, AIUDF leader
What is the political equation in Assam?
Before the 2026 assembly elections in Assam, it is agreed that BJP is still in the field with strong organization and resources. Congress looks weak from within, but its vote bank has not been completely destroyed. Muslim dominated seats will still be an important factor in the elections. Vote sharing between AIUDF and Congress can benefit BJP. On the basis of this political mathematics, Himanta’s statement of 22 seats is also being considered as a big political move.
