In simple terms, Chelsea are playing well, but not enough to be champions.
Chelsea’s attack, even after losing Cole Palmer for more than two months to injury, is on par with Arsenal’s.
However, Arsenal’s incredible defensive statistics set them apart.
Historically, to win the title, a team needs to average a non-penalty expected goal difference (npXG) of +1 per game, meaning you are creating substantially more chances than you consistently concede.
Only Arsenal are achieving that level of consistency so far this season, while Chelsea need to improve defensively.
Having beaten Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this season, Spanish left-back Marc Cucurella said his team’s inconsistency against lesser opposition is a problem.
“I think this season we lost points against teams you expect to win against,” the defender said.
Curiously, Arsenal’s exceptional defense threatens Chelsea’s record for most clean sheets (25) and fewest goals conceded (15) in a Premier League campaign, achieved under José Mourinho in 2005.
“You can see that they don’t concede goals,” Maresca said. “Defensively they are the best team and the first in the league and the Champions League, so they are the team to beat.”
There are obvious stylistic similarities between the two teams: both play with a patient, high-pressing possession style.
Another key difference is the quality of the set pieces. Arsenal are the best offensive set-piece team in the league, with 10 goals in 12 games and the highest xG with 7.88. Meanwhile, Chelsea are second with eight set-piece goals and have the fourth-highest xG at 5.44.
Although Arsenal conceded just one fewer goal from set pieces than Chelsea (three compared to four), they have the second-best against xG (2.04) when defending these types of situations, while Chelsea are the second-worst (6.40). Despite an improvement from last season, there may still be problems when Arsenal come to town.
Chelsea must also overcome an increasingly poor record against Arsenal on Sunday, with just one win in their last 11 Premier League games. The Gunners are also unbeaten in six games at Stamford Bridge.
