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An interesting and slightly surprising pattern has been seen in the trade between India and America during 2025. According to trade research think GTRI, India’s exports to the US fell sharply between May and September 2025, even though tariffs were relatively low at that time.
New Delhi. Do increases in tariffs automatically cause exports to fall? Usually the answer is yes, but India-US trade has overturned this thinking. In 2025, a strange pattern emerged where India’s exports fell sharply during the period of low tariffs, whereas after the imposition of high tariffs, the same exports seemed to be recovering. This reverse calculation is not only surprising the experts, but is also raising questions on the trade strategy. Why did it happen that business collapsed in an environment of fear and companies started adjusting as soon as the strictness was decided? The report of trade research think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) reveals this surprising story of India-US trade, which has given a new direction to the trade deal debate.
According to GTRI, India’s exports to the US fell sharply between May and September 2025, even though tariffs were relatively low at that time. In contrast, even when tariffs increased to 50% after September, India’s exports saw a partial recovery. According to the data, India’s exports to America were $8.8 billion in May, which fell to $5.5 billion in September. Although by November it increased to $7.0 billion, that is, there was an overall decline of 20.7% between May and November, but from the low level of September till November, a recovery of about 27% was recorded.
Increase in exports from these sectors in November
According to news agency ANI, GTRI says that about 85% of the exports in November came from such sectors which first declined and then saw a surge. The same trend was seen in sectors like gems and jewellery, electronics (smartphones), machinery, auto parts, pharma, textile and chemical.
Earlier there was uncertainty regarding tariff increase
According to the report, the main reason for the initial decline was uncertainty over a possible tariff increase, due to which American buyers postponed orders. Once the higher tariffs were set, exporters and buyers were able to negotiate new prices and adjust the supply chain. However, GTRI has made it clear that this improvement is not permanent and still remains fragile.
