Tejashwi Yadav got a huge blow of defeat in Bihar assembly elections. From 2015 to 2020, RJD’s progress has stopped, but Tejashwi will have to be prepared to face big setbacks in future also. It is impossible for Tejashwi Yadav and his party RJD to send even one member to the Rajya Sabha given the number of seats they have got in the assembly elections this time. Since NDA has control over 202 seats in the Assembly, it will remain in power. In April 2026, 5 seats are becoming vacant in the Rajya Sabha of Bihar quota, for which elections will be held. Out of these 5, 4 seats belong to NDA, while on 2 seats RJD members went to Rajya Sabha. Since RJD now has only 25 MLAs and its allies have MLAs, it will not be possible to send even a single member to Rajya Sabha. The result of this will be that the number of RJD members in Rajya Sabha will decrease.
4 seats of NDA quota are becoming vacant
There is a quota of 16 members for Bihar in Rajya Sabha. RJD currently has 5 members. Among these, the membership of Premchand Gupta and Amarendra Dhari Singh will expire in April 2026. The tenure of Manoj Jha and Sanjay Yadav is till 2030, while the tenure of Faiyaz Ahmed is ending in 2028. Akhilesh Prasad Singh of the Congress, a major component of the Grand Alliance, is also in the Rajya Sabha. His tenure will also end in 2030 only. Talking about NDA, the tenure of its 4 members will end in April 2026. These include JDU quota member and Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman Harivansh Narayan Singh, Ramnath Thakur, and one member each from BJP and RLM. There is no problem for NDA in sending its people to vacant seats, but it is impossible for RJD.
MLAs will choose Rajya Sabha members
Only MLAs have a role in Rajya Sabha elections. In other words, it is the MLAs who elect the Rajya Sabha members. Support of 41 MLAs is necessary for the election of one member in Bihar. If seen from this perspective, the opposition’s hands will be empty this time. This will also affect the elections to be held on the seats falling vacant in 2030. Because when the seats become vacant in 2030, the numbers of NDA constituents will still be strong. Although assembly elections will also be held in the same year, but before that there will be an opportunity for Rajya Sabha elections. That means the number of NDA MLAs at present will remain the same at the time of Rajya Sabha elections in 2030. There are 243 MLAs in Bihar Assembly. Of these, NDA has 202 MLAs while the opposition Grand Alliance has 35 MLAs. Rajya Sabha is elected through single transferable vote system. The scale created for this is calculated on the basis of total assembly seats/6+1 (243/6+1 = 41). For example, to win a candidate will need at least 41 first preference votes. Even if the Grand Alliance collects all the votes, the number will not go beyond 35. In such a situation, it will not be possible for RJD to send anyone to Rajya Sabha at least till 2030.
Kushwaha also trusts BJP-JDU
Upendra Kushwaha’s tenure was only for 2 years. His tenure is also ending in April 2026. He has only 4 MLAs. With the support of so few MLAs, it is not possible for him to go to Rajya Sabha on his own. Therefore, if he also wants to be repeated in Rajya Sabha, then the support of other NDA parties will be necessary. It is said that Upendra Kushwaha was not satisfied with the number of seats he got in the assembly elections. Then NDA’s leading party BJP had assured him of one seat in the Legislative Council and also one seat in the Rajya Sabha. Kushwaha has included his son Deepak in the Nitish cabinet in anticipation of getting a seat in the Legislative Council. If BJP and JDU agree, Upendra Kushwaha himself will go to Rajya Sabha.
This is a difficult period for RJD
This time the assembly elections are going to cause big loss for RJD. First of all, Tejashwi’s dream of forming the government was dashed. It seems impossible for it to win even a single seat in the second Rajya Sabha elections. He has only 25 MLAs. Including 6 Congress MLAs and 5 AIMIM MLAs, it has only 36 votes, whereas 41 votes are required. No transfer votes will also help RJD, as NDA has 203 MLAs and can win all the 5 vacant Rajya Sabha seats. If this happens, the number of RJD members in Rajya Sabha will reduce from 5 to 3. Not only this, it will come to zero in 2028 and 2030. Same situation will happen in Legislative Council elections also.
2 times limit fixed in JDU
Nitish Kumar has set an unspoken limit of maximum 2 terms for those going to Rajya Sabha from JDU. Nitish did not give Ali Anwar and RCP Singh a chance to go to Rajya Sabha for the third time. JDU currently has 5 members in Rajya Sabha. Among these, the tenure of Harivansh and Ramnath Thakur will end in April 2026. For the last few years, Nitish Kumar has maintained an unwritten tradition. This is the second term of the members who will have both the seats vacant. Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether Nitish retreats from the rules made by him or sticks to them.
