Thiruvananthapuram. Before the assembly elections to be held in Kerala next year, the results of the local body elections have given a new direction to the politics of the state. These results are not just a game of statistics, but they give a clear indication of the public mood, anti-incumbency tendencies and emerging political changes. These results have proved to be a lifesaver for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The UDF, which has been struggling for a long time, got massive success in these elections, which has given it confidence and psychological edge before the assembly elections. The victory in four municipal corporations, dozens of municipalities, district and block panchayats indicates that UDF has strengthened its hold at the grassroots level.
On the contrary, these results are a warning bell for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). LDF, which is preparing to return to power for the third consecutive time, will have to prove that its support base is still intact. Steps like welfare schemes, pension increase and social security also did not appear to be completely successful in attracting voters. This indicates that not only the schemes, but the credibility of the governance and communication with the public are also playing a decisive role.
The third and most interesting aspect of these results is the performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In Kerala’s traditional bipolar politics – UDF versus LDF – BJP’s victory, especially the capture of Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation, is a big political signal. Even though BJP does not have any MLA in the Assembly, its presence at the local level shows that the politics of the state is no longer limited to two camps.
UDF claims that issues related to Sabarimala, allegations of corruption, nepotism and alleged anti-people policies of the government strengthened the anti-incumbency wave. LDF has blamed the unexpected political circumstances and opposition alliance for the defeat and has also expressed confidence of comeback. The ruling alliance during the campaign mainly depended on various social welfare and development programs of the state government, allegations against Palakkad MLA Rahul Mamkootathil and the UDF’s alleged links with Jamaat-e-Islami. LDF admitted that it had not expected such a big setback.
The results indicate that the welfare measures announced by the LDF government just before the civic polls, including an increase in social security and welfare pensions, higher honorarium for Asha workers and a new women safety scheme, and several other financial packages did not prove to be effective. However, the LDF leadership said that the party and the front had faced more serious setbacks in the past, but they regained public confidence and subsequently made a strong comeback.
The CPI(M) state secretariat said in a statement, “The party has moved forward only after making proper assessments at every stage and making necessary reforms. Regaining public confidence and coming back even stronger through such reforms is part of the party’s history.” The CPI(M) accused the UDF of contesting the elections by openly and secretly colluding with all communal forces. The Left Front rejected BJP’s claim of a big victory and said that it does not match the facts.
During the campaign, the ruling alliance mainly depended on various social welfare and development programs of the state government, allegations against Palakkad MLA Rahul Mamkootathil and the UDF’s alleged links with Jamaat-e-Islami. The LDF admitted that it had not expected such a big setback. Overall, these results make it clear that the upcoming assembly elections in Kerala are heading towards a triangular fight, where the UDF is excited, the LDF is cautious and the BJP is exploring new possibilities. The message of the public is clear – political parties will now have to enter the field with ground work, trust and a clear agenda.
