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Donald Trump’s accusation of rice dumping on India and threat of new tariffs has increased the concern of Indian rice exporters. Indian exporters, already facing super-high tariffs of 53 per cent, are now facing new burdens from both political pressure and competition. Data shows that India’s share in the US has remained almost stable over the last decade, but the changing market and Trump’s stance may make it more challenging.
New Delhi. US President Donald Trump’s ‘dumping’ allegations have raised new heat on India’s rice exports. India is already facing about 53 percent effective tariff in the US market, so the threat of new duties has increased the concern of exporters. Despite this, India’s total share in the US market has remained stable at around 25 percent between 2017 and 2024. Despite large-scale increase in imports, India’s influence has remained almost the same in the last decade.
Huge changes in competitors, India strong in certain categories
Thailand is still the largest supplier to the US market and its share will be 54.9 percent in 2024. During this period, China has quietly increased its influence. China has increased its export of rice to America from 1.3 percent in 2017 to 3.5 percent in 2024. India’s stable share comes from its strong exports. Especially in long variety Basmati rice, India continues to capture 88 percent of American imports. India is also leading in the organic non-parboiled segment at about 55 percent. India is the largest supplier of parboiled long variety rice with 31 percent.
Basmati share decreased, demand for non-Basmati increased
The face of India’s exports to America has changed between 2017 and 2024. Demand for Basmati declined and exports dropped from $23.2 million to about $11.2 million. In contrast, the export of non-Basmati long variety rice increased significantly from $11.9 million to $33.3 million. Export of mixed-grain rice has also increased more than double. India’s share in many categories like jasmine, husked and short-grain is still limited, the benefit of which is being given to countries like Thailand, Japan and Argentina.
Such pattern was seen earlier also, uncertainty increased due to new allegations
Even during Trump’s first term, India’s share in the US market had fallen from 25.6 percent to 23.6 percent in 2020. Later it increased again during the pandemic, but now the same situation seems to be happening again. Experts believe that if tariffs increase further or dumping investigation is initiated, it may become a challenge for India to maintain the rapid growth of non-Basmati category. At present, Indian exporters are waiting for the impact of these allegations and are hoping that India’s hold in the American market does not weaken.
